Subscribe to Running Research News

Science of Sport: What Factor Is Most Important For Marathon Success

Cohort Studies Don't Shed Much Light on the Matter

By Owen Anderson, Ph. D. (Copyright © 2004-2006)

Since the 1970s, exercise scientists have been keenly interested in discovering the elements of training and fitness which are most important for marathon success. The earliest studies focused on ingredients such as maximal aerobic capacity, weekly training mileage, number of miles per workout, training intensity (speed), running economy, age, height, and weight, attempting to link these variables with marathon finishing time.

One of the first such investigations was carried out by R. D. Hagan and his colleagues at the Texas College of Osteopathic Medicine in Dallas (1). Hagan and company studied 35 female runners, age 19 to 54 years, who trained for and competed in the Dallas White Rock Marathon in 1980. Hagan's harriers were varied in experience and ability; 19 were novice marathoners, and the other 16 had completed three or more marathons prior to White Rock. Marathon Performance Time (in minutes) = 449.88 - (7.61) X (average number of kilometers run per day) - (.63) X (average training pace in meters per minute)

Please take note of what Hagan's equation suggests. First, your finishing time for the marathon should be 449.88 minutes, or about seven hours and 30 minutes, if you carry out no training whatsoever. This is probably not far off the mark for individuals of average physical capacity: I once attempted to run the London Marathon on a base of zero miles per week and soared past the half-way point in about 3:30, before taking the Tube to the post-race party. Had the underground stop not been positioned conveniently at mid-race, an omission which would have forced me to roam onto the Isle of Dogs in East London to continue the 26.2-mile event, I probably would have slowed my searing pace somewhat over the second half of the competition, perhaps producing a 7:30 finish.

Second, please notice that Hagan's tinkering indicates that both training volume and training intensity are predictive of marathon success. In fact (as you can readily see from the numbers above), each additional kilometer run per day seems to shave 7.61 minutes from marathon finishing time. That seems to be a rather significant return on investment, given that the average runner can cover a kilometer in just four to five minutes or so, which is not too large an infringement on one's daily time in front of the television. As you will notice, also, the lucky runner who can manage a daily diet of greater than 59.1 kilometers will finish the marathon before he/she even starts it!

The factor (.63) associated with average training pace is also quite interesting, suggesting that a mere average training-speed upswing of a miserly one meter per minute will cut about (.63) (60) = 38 seconds from marathon clocking. True, the four-hour-plus marathoner may not be much interested in this, but the 2:06 man and the 2:20 woman surely will be. Note, also, that covering just 20 meters more in each minute of training will clip about 12:36 from end time, surely a strong incentive to pick things up a bit on easy runs.

However, a second glance reveals that 20-meter per minute swings are not so easy to attain. Let's say, for example, that you usually run your workouts at about 268 meters per minute, which happens to be six-minute per mile pace. Moving up to 288 meters per minute does not sound bad in the abstract, but bear in mind that such a move means you'll now have to saunter along at 5:35 tempo, clearly involving a major change in perceived effort.

Note, too, that Hagan's equation contains a strong element of circularity. That is, superior runners tend to run their workouts faster, compared with less-accomplished competitors. Superior runners also tend to run their marathons more quickly, compared with middle-of-the-pack material. Thus, marathon finishing time may simply be the result of intrinsic running capacity, rather than training speed per se. We have to remember that Hagan's work was a cohort investigation, not a randomized trial. A cohort study just follows runners along as they go about their business of training and racing. A randomized trial, the gold standard of scientific investigating, would divide the marathoners into groups of equal ability - and then examine how differences in training speed and volume influenced marathon finishing time.

I should point out, too, that other studies have not found training volume (miles run per week or per workout) to be a very good predictor of marathon success. For example, some research has suggested that training volume can do a great job of prognosticating marathon finishing time among novice runners - but is terrible when it comes to seasoned 26.2-mile competitors. The reason for this is quite simple. Among novice marathoners, there is often a large range of weekly training distances. For first-time marathoners, the difference between running 25 miles per week and covering 40 miles per week (in terms of the resulting enhancement of fitness and performance) is huge. The 40-milers will almost always have an edge in terms of aerobic capacity and running economy, and - provided they don't get hurt during training - will thus finish the marathon faster, on average.

For experienced marathoners, on the other hand, a simple upswing in weekly mileage is a much-weaker stimulus for physiological improvement. Battle-scarred marathon runners have already made significant gains in fitness, thanks to years of training, and a 15-mile per week uptick in mileage will have a much-milder impact on key things like vVO2max, economy, and running speed at lactate threshold, compared with the physiological tempests which take place in first-timers when the log book fills up with more miles. What will be more important for the seasoned marathoner is the quality of the running training which is performed - and the types and progressions of strength training which she/he utilizes.

The importance of the quality of marathon training also comes to the fore when one considers the dominance exhibited by Kenyan runners in the world of marathon running. When adolescent Kenyan runners and same-age Caucasian runners are studied, it is found that both groups run at about the same percentage of maximal aerobic capacity during competitions (2). However, adult Kenyan runners move along at a higher percentage of max aerobic capacity during marathons, compared with Caucasian competitors, giving the Kenyans a key edge. This move to a higher percent of VO2max sustained in racing must be accomplished as a result of specific modes of training, since similar percents are achieved by Kenyans and Caucs at earlier ages. Close studies of Kenyan runners reveal that a key difference in their training, compared with the programs employed by non-African runners, is the higher average intensity of each workout, rather than the daily or weekly volume of training. This spike in average intensity builds stamina at higher intensities, producing the situation in which Kenyans can cruise along for 26-plus miles at a higher fraction of max.

Another element in marathon success is clearly the extent to which a runner has specifically prepared for the marathon. Compare two runners, Joe and John, for example, both of whom are hoping to run the marathon at 7:00 tempo. Joe has been running 100 kilometers (62 miles) per week and appears to have the advantage over John, who has only been hitting 70 weekly kilometers (43 miles). However, John has covered a grand total of 50 miles at 7:00 pace during his 16-week marathon build-up, compared with a paltry 10 miles at 7:00 for Joe. John will probably beat Joe, other things being equal, because John will have greater economy and confidence at actual goal tempo. During any pre-marathon training period, it is best to establish a reasonable marathon goal pace and then to run for increasing distances at this pace as training proceeds. For example, one might warm up, run 3 miles at goal marathon pace, and then cool down with 1 easy mile 20 weeks before marathon day. Four weeks before the big event, however, one should be able to run 8 miles easily, scoot through 10 miles at goal pace, and cool down with 2 light miles, all without stopping, or trouble is likely to occur on race day.

The very best workouts for improving marathon performance, including the sessions carried out at goal pace, are described in my book, Great Workouts for Popular Races. To improve your marathon training, get this book now.

This is truly marathon season, with the Chicago Marathon coming up this weekend and the New York Marathon just two weeks after that. To celebrate marathon running, my publisher has discounted my complete, 26-week marathon training schedules by up to 33 percent. For example, the advanced marathon schedule, usually $399, is now just $299, and the intermediate marathon program, ordinarily $299, can now be obtained for under 200 bucks. To get a full, 26-week marathon training program which will help you unleash your true marathon potential, click here now. Please hurry, as this sale will end on Tuesday, October 24 at midnight ET.

To participate in our blog on marathon training, including a discussion of how to beat the bonk during the marathon.

References

(1) "Marathon Performance in Relation to Maximal Aerobic Power and Training Indices in Female Distance Runners," British Journal of Sports Medicine, Vol. 21 (1), pp. 3-7, 1987

(2) "Kenyan Dominance in Distance Running," Comp Biochem Physiol A Mol Integr Physiol, Vol. 136 (1), pp. 161-170, 2003

Please visit our web site at www.runningresearchnews.com to get the latest information about training, sports nutrition, and injury prevention.

Copyright © 2006 Running Research News, All rights reserved. Posted with permission.

Comment on this story.

Subscribe to the Runner's Web Weekly Digest